Post by prossman on Nov 15, 2014 4:48:07 GMT -7
Cowboys Self-Assessment Pt. 2: Confidence Rankings (Offense)
By KD Drummond | Nov 14, 2014 | Permalink
In Part Two of our Self-Assessment, we take a look at the landscape of the NFC East offenses, ranking for now and the near future.
In the second installment of our bye week analysis of the 2014 Dallas Cowboys, we bring you the Confidence Rankings. For Part 1, the Individual Cowboys Player Power Rankings, go here. Here, we’ll take a look at the individual units on the Cowboys roster and compare them against the rest of the NFC East. We’ll evaluate not only on the units impact for 2014, but also the long term viability of each.
Confidence Rankings is something I borrowed from Mike and Mike a few years back. They used it to determine the playoff teams with the best shot at winning it all. Basically, you award points to a team based on how confident you are in them for individual position groups or facet of the team.
If you are most confident in Dallas' quarterback situation compared to the rest of the NFCE, Dallas would get a '1'. The next team would get a '2', next team a '3' and the team you are least confident would get a '4'. You do that across all of the position groups and then tally up the scores. The team with the lowest score wins three internets.
Granted, you can't simply determine the worth of a team based on a sum of it's parts. However, this can still serve as a starting point in determining where Dallas stands in respect to its rivals. So let's get to it, in our Bye Week Confidence Ratings comparison. The final year of each player’s contract is in parenthesis after their name, to assist in evaluating their long-term viability for their current teams.
NFC EAST
OFFENSE
Team QB RB WR TE OL
Dallas Romo (19), Weeden (15), Vaughan (16) Murray (14), Dunbar (14), Randle (16), Clutts (14) Bryant (14), Williams (16), Harris (14), Beasley (14), Street (17) Witten (17), Hanna (15), Escobar (16) Smith (23), Leary (14), Frederick (16), Martin (17), Free (14), Parnell (14), Bernadeau (15)
New York Manning (15), Nassib (16) Jennings (17), Williams (17), Hillis (15), Hynoski (14) Cruz (18), Beckham Jr. (17), Randle (15), Parker (15), Washington (16) Donnell (14), Fells (14), Robinson (15) Beatty (17), Schwartz (17), Richburg (17), Walton (15), Jerry (14), Pugh (16), Brown (14), Reynolds (14)
Philadelphia Foles (15), Sanchez (14), Barkley (16) McCoy (17), Sproles (16), Polk (14) Maclin (14), Matthews (17), Cooper (18), Huff (17), Maehl (14), Smith (14) Celek (16), Ertz (16), Casey (15) Peters (18), Kelly (15), Molk (15), Kelce (20), Johnson (16), Herrmanns (16), Tobin (15), Gardner (15)
Washington Griffin III (15), Cousins (15), McCoy (14) Morris (15), Helu (14), Redd, Young (15) Garcon (16), Jackson (17), Roberts (17), Grant (17), Robinson (14), Hankerson (14), Moss (14) Reed (15), Paul (14), Paulsen (15) Williams (15), Lauvao, Lichtensteiger (17), Chester (15), Luavao (17), Polumbus (14), LeRibeus (15), Compton (14), Moses (17)
Quarterback:
We can assume ESPN’s Tim Hassleback would like a do-over from this summer.
Tony Romo has distanced himself from the field here. The 9-year starter is playing some of the best ball of his career and is a legitimate MVP candidate, albeit probably not a serious threat. He ranks in between 2nd and 8th in virtually every important quarterback stat for 2014. The backup situation for Dallas is putrid, as witnessed by the one-game audition Brandon Weeden had against the Cardinals. Romo’s back is a long term concern, as he has now had three serious situations in less than two seasons. For now, though… Dallas should be comfortable assuming two-three more years at the current level.
Nick Foles is out for the year due to a broken clavicle, and the word is that his shoddy mechanics had him already falling out of favor with the Eagles brass. That leaves them with one-year rental Mark Sanchez, who would become one of the rare quarterbacks to completely bomb somewhere, then maintain a rejuvenation in a new location. It normally doesn’t last longer than a few games. Meanwhile, Eli Manning has curbed his interception propensity this season, currently posting his career-low in interception percentage and a career high in completion percentage. The two questions are whether the Giants coaching staff will remain in place after the season to continue with the West Coast Offense transformation, and will they extend Eli past 2015? The club has had no reason to showcase Ryan Nassib, so outside of his non-descript preseason appearances, the jury is still out.
In Washington, Robert Griffin III has defaulted back into the position of franchise quarterback. Kurt Cousins legitimized one scribe’s comparisons to Rex Grossman, and his performance will likely force Washington to utilize the option year on Griffin’s contract. He doesn’t have the speed of his rookie year, but Griffin is still a serviceable starter in the NFL.
Order: Dallas, New York, Washington, Philadelphia
Running Back: DeMarco Murray is clearly the best back in the division, but his fumbling history this year is a huge cause for concern. He’s costing the Cowboys points on a every-game basis and probably costing himself money as a pending free agent. Dallas has stockpiled adequate runners behind him that are not capable pass blockers, but threats in the passing game. If Murray walks, which is a 50/50 shot at the moment, Dallas will likely need to augment the position in the draft. A team shouldn’t waste this kind of offensive line.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line has been miserable in 2014, but that’s not the only thing wrong with the running game. Maybe LeSean McCoy let the endorsement deals go to his head, because he is failing at getting through holes as he dances and waits for an opportunity to get the big play instead of “only” four yards. Darren Sproles is a menace in the return game and passing game, but his age and size keeps him in the COP role. McCoy is scheduled to cost almost $10m in base salary in 2015, but little of that is guaranteed. He has three years remaining on his deal.
The Giants decided to roll with a veteran with injury history that has never carried an entire rushing attack. So what happens? He misses half the season. Rashad Jennings still isn’t 100% and rookie Andre Williams hasn’t been able to get on track for the Giants. Jennings has three more years on his deal, all after the age of 30. Expect the Giants to explore one of the many top backs in this year’s draft class.
In Washington, Alfred Morris only seems to perform well when defenses have to be concerned with a RGIII threat. If Griffin plays, Morris is a Top 15 back with one year remaining on his deal. If not, Roy Helu is a better option, but he’s a UFA at the end of the season. Darrell Young is probably the only fullback worth mentioning in the division. The uncertainty over Murray’s retention keeps Dallas from claiming the top spot here.
Order: Philadelphia, Dallas, Washington, New York
Wide Receiver: The NFC East’s top two receivers are unrestricted free agents. Nobody realistically expects the top guy, Dez Bryant, to leave Dallas. However, Jeremy Maclin could easily be on the way out in Philadelphia after gambling on himself with a one-year deal. He will look to get paid in the offseason. DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garçon should be the divisions best duo, but quarterback play has basically eliminated Garçon this season and left Jackson to be his diminutive deep threat self. Terrance Williams hasn’t solved his issue of being a body catcher and will probably continue to do so, and limit him.
Williams is still a much better player than Riley Cooper, who Philly signed to a long-term deal but is now their number three guy behind rookie Jordan Matthews. Matthews and the Giant’s Odell Beckham, Jr. will quickly become household names in the division; top shelf rookies with game-dominating skill-sets. They will likely both surpass the numbers of Williams next season. The problem for New York is that Victor Cruz and Beckham both are better in the slot, though it would be dumb to put anything past Bechham. No division has better wideout play than the NFC East, even if Maclin leaves. Assuming Philly (who has the money) locks him in, here’s the order of things.
Order: Philadelphia, Dallas, Washington, New York
Tight End: For all the excitement around the wideouts, the TE group has been disappointing. Jason Witten is still The Senator and still at the top of the mountain, but in terms of pass-catching he is starting to slow down a little bit. His blocking is still exceptional and transcendent. The young guns in the division have all failed to live up to expectations. That makes this unit a toss-up when looking at long-term value in the division. Washington’s Jordan Reed should be a much bigger threat than he is, but seems lost in the blocking game and is losing snaps and therefore targets. He also can’t stay on the field worth a damn. Niles Paul, a wide receiver convert, is also really bad at doing much of anything outside of seam routes. Zack Ertz still hasn’t done what Eagles followers anticipated, as he still tries to find his way in the Philly offense. He’ll end up with 50 catches, however currently has as many drops and fumbles as he does scores; two. Gavin Escobar has been extremely limited in opportunities thanks to nagging injuries, but has scored three times and exploited the Giants in a matchup earlier this season. He simply isn’t being used by Dallas. New York has failed to invest in the position, but third-year guy Larry Donnell has by far the most volume of the young guys in the division.
Order: Dallas, New York, Philadelphia, Washington
O-Line: This is a true test in determining what’s important in an offensive line. Despite their injuries, the Eagles have done a great job protecting their QBs, and a horrible job opening holes for their backs. They are the oldest unit in the division (but not really old) and are suffering through injuries. The Giants have a mixture of young and old, are suffering injuries, but are middle of the pack in run blocking and pass protection. Washington is relatively young, and middle of the pack in both categories. Meanwhile Dallas is extremely young, dominating in run blocking and although they’ve been bad overall in pas pro, seem to be improving. Rookie guard Zack Martin might just be the best lineman in the division.
Order: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, New York.
Summary: On offense, the Cowboys seem to have a clear advantage over their competition in the East.
The concerns are the free agents, where for this exercise it is assumed that Dez Bryant and Jeremy Maclin remain, while DeMarco Murray goes elsewhere. The only remaining “star” with a question mark is Eli Manning, whose deal expires after 2015.
Here’s a look at the complete rankings for offense:
NFC EAST
OFFENSE
RANK
Team QB RB WR TE OL Avg
Dallas 1 2 2 1 1 1.4
Philadelphia 4 1 1 3 2 2.2
Washington 3 3 3 4 3 3.2
New York 2 4 4 2 4 3.2
By KD Drummond | Nov 14, 2014 | Permalink
In Part Two of our Self-Assessment, we take a look at the landscape of the NFC East offenses, ranking for now and the near future.
In the second installment of our bye week analysis of the 2014 Dallas Cowboys, we bring you the Confidence Rankings. For Part 1, the Individual Cowboys Player Power Rankings, go here. Here, we’ll take a look at the individual units on the Cowboys roster and compare them against the rest of the NFC East. We’ll evaluate not only on the units impact for 2014, but also the long term viability of each.
Confidence Rankings is something I borrowed from Mike and Mike a few years back. They used it to determine the playoff teams with the best shot at winning it all. Basically, you award points to a team based on how confident you are in them for individual position groups or facet of the team.
If you are most confident in Dallas' quarterback situation compared to the rest of the NFCE, Dallas would get a '1'. The next team would get a '2', next team a '3' and the team you are least confident would get a '4'. You do that across all of the position groups and then tally up the scores. The team with the lowest score wins three internets.
Granted, you can't simply determine the worth of a team based on a sum of it's parts. However, this can still serve as a starting point in determining where Dallas stands in respect to its rivals. So let's get to it, in our Bye Week Confidence Ratings comparison. The final year of each player’s contract is in parenthesis after their name, to assist in evaluating their long-term viability for their current teams.
NFC EAST
OFFENSE
Team QB RB WR TE OL
Dallas Romo (19), Weeden (15), Vaughan (16) Murray (14), Dunbar (14), Randle (16), Clutts (14) Bryant (14), Williams (16), Harris (14), Beasley (14), Street (17) Witten (17), Hanna (15), Escobar (16) Smith (23), Leary (14), Frederick (16), Martin (17), Free (14), Parnell (14), Bernadeau (15)
New York Manning (15), Nassib (16) Jennings (17), Williams (17), Hillis (15), Hynoski (14) Cruz (18), Beckham Jr. (17), Randle (15), Parker (15), Washington (16) Donnell (14), Fells (14), Robinson (15) Beatty (17), Schwartz (17), Richburg (17), Walton (15), Jerry (14), Pugh (16), Brown (14), Reynolds (14)
Philadelphia Foles (15), Sanchez (14), Barkley (16) McCoy (17), Sproles (16), Polk (14) Maclin (14), Matthews (17), Cooper (18), Huff (17), Maehl (14), Smith (14) Celek (16), Ertz (16), Casey (15) Peters (18), Kelly (15), Molk (15), Kelce (20), Johnson (16), Herrmanns (16), Tobin (15), Gardner (15)
Washington Griffin III (15), Cousins (15), McCoy (14) Morris (15), Helu (14), Redd, Young (15) Garcon (16), Jackson (17), Roberts (17), Grant (17), Robinson (14), Hankerson (14), Moss (14) Reed (15), Paul (14), Paulsen (15) Williams (15), Lauvao, Lichtensteiger (17), Chester (15), Luavao (17), Polumbus (14), LeRibeus (15), Compton (14), Moses (17)
Quarterback:
We can assume ESPN’s Tim Hassleback would like a do-over from this summer.
Tony Romo has distanced himself from the field here. The 9-year starter is playing some of the best ball of his career and is a legitimate MVP candidate, albeit probably not a serious threat. He ranks in between 2nd and 8th in virtually every important quarterback stat for 2014. The backup situation for Dallas is putrid, as witnessed by the one-game audition Brandon Weeden had against the Cardinals. Romo’s back is a long term concern, as he has now had three serious situations in less than two seasons. For now, though… Dallas should be comfortable assuming two-three more years at the current level.
Nick Foles is out for the year due to a broken clavicle, and the word is that his shoddy mechanics had him already falling out of favor with the Eagles brass. That leaves them with one-year rental Mark Sanchez, who would become one of the rare quarterbacks to completely bomb somewhere, then maintain a rejuvenation in a new location. It normally doesn’t last longer than a few games. Meanwhile, Eli Manning has curbed his interception propensity this season, currently posting his career-low in interception percentage and a career high in completion percentage. The two questions are whether the Giants coaching staff will remain in place after the season to continue with the West Coast Offense transformation, and will they extend Eli past 2015? The club has had no reason to showcase Ryan Nassib, so outside of his non-descript preseason appearances, the jury is still out.
In Washington, Robert Griffin III has defaulted back into the position of franchise quarterback. Kurt Cousins legitimized one scribe’s comparisons to Rex Grossman, and his performance will likely force Washington to utilize the option year on Griffin’s contract. He doesn’t have the speed of his rookie year, but Griffin is still a serviceable starter in the NFL.
Order: Dallas, New York, Washington, Philadelphia
Running Back: DeMarco Murray is clearly the best back in the division, but his fumbling history this year is a huge cause for concern. He’s costing the Cowboys points on a every-game basis and probably costing himself money as a pending free agent. Dallas has stockpiled adequate runners behind him that are not capable pass blockers, but threats in the passing game. If Murray walks, which is a 50/50 shot at the moment, Dallas will likely need to augment the position in the draft. A team shouldn’t waste this kind of offensive line.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line has been miserable in 2014, but that’s not the only thing wrong with the running game. Maybe LeSean McCoy let the endorsement deals go to his head, because he is failing at getting through holes as he dances and waits for an opportunity to get the big play instead of “only” four yards. Darren Sproles is a menace in the return game and passing game, but his age and size keeps him in the COP role. McCoy is scheduled to cost almost $10m in base salary in 2015, but little of that is guaranteed. He has three years remaining on his deal.
The Giants decided to roll with a veteran with injury history that has never carried an entire rushing attack. So what happens? He misses half the season. Rashad Jennings still isn’t 100% and rookie Andre Williams hasn’t been able to get on track for the Giants. Jennings has three more years on his deal, all after the age of 30. Expect the Giants to explore one of the many top backs in this year’s draft class.
In Washington, Alfred Morris only seems to perform well when defenses have to be concerned with a RGIII threat. If Griffin plays, Morris is a Top 15 back with one year remaining on his deal. If not, Roy Helu is a better option, but he’s a UFA at the end of the season. Darrell Young is probably the only fullback worth mentioning in the division. The uncertainty over Murray’s retention keeps Dallas from claiming the top spot here.
Order: Philadelphia, Dallas, Washington, New York
Wide Receiver: The NFC East’s top two receivers are unrestricted free agents. Nobody realistically expects the top guy, Dez Bryant, to leave Dallas. However, Jeremy Maclin could easily be on the way out in Philadelphia after gambling on himself with a one-year deal. He will look to get paid in the offseason. DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garçon should be the divisions best duo, but quarterback play has basically eliminated Garçon this season and left Jackson to be his diminutive deep threat self. Terrance Williams hasn’t solved his issue of being a body catcher and will probably continue to do so, and limit him.
Williams is still a much better player than Riley Cooper, who Philly signed to a long-term deal but is now their number three guy behind rookie Jordan Matthews. Matthews and the Giant’s Odell Beckham, Jr. will quickly become household names in the division; top shelf rookies with game-dominating skill-sets. They will likely both surpass the numbers of Williams next season. The problem for New York is that Victor Cruz and Beckham both are better in the slot, though it would be dumb to put anything past Bechham. No division has better wideout play than the NFC East, even if Maclin leaves. Assuming Philly (who has the money) locks him in, here’s the order of things.
Order: Philadelphia, Dallas, Washington, New York
Tight End: For all the excitement around the wideouts, the TE group has been disappointing. Jason Witten is still The Senator and still at the top of the mountain, but in terms of pass-catching he is starting to slow down a little bit. His blocking is still exceptional and transcendent. The young guns in the division have all failed to live up to expectations. That makes this unit a toss-up when looking at long-term value in the division. Washington’s Jordan Reed should be a much bigger threat than he is, but seems lost in the blocking game and is losing snaps and therefore targets. He also can’t stay on the field worth a damn. Niles Paul, a wide receiver convert, is also really bad at doing much of anything outside of seam routes. Zack Ertz still hasn’t done what Eagles followers anticipated, as he still tries to find his way in the Philly offense. He’ll end up with 50 catches, however currently has as many drops and fumbles as he does scores; two. Gavin Escobar has been extremely limited in opportunities thanks to nagging injuries, but has scored three times and exploited the Giants in a matchup earlier this season. He simply isn’t being used by Dallas. New York has failed to invest in the position, but third-year guy Larry Donnell has by far the most volume of the young guys in the division.
Order: Dallas, New York, Philadelphia, Washington
O-Line: This is a true test in determining what’s important in an offensive line. Despite their injuries, the Eagles have done a great job protecting their QBs, and a horrible job opening holes for their backs. They are the oldest unit in the division (but not really old) and are suffering through injuries. The Giants have a mixture of young and old, are suffering injuries, but are middle of the pack in run blocking and pass protection. Washington is relatively young, and middle of the pack in both categories. Meanwhile Dallas is extremely young, dominating in run blocking and although they’ve been bad overall in pas pro, seem to be improving. Rookie guard Zack Martin might just be the best lineman in the division.
Order: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, New York.
Summary: On offense, the Cowboys seem to have a clear advantage over their competition in the East.
The concerns are the free agents, where for this exercise it is assumed that Dez Bryant and Jeremy Maclin remain, while DeMarco Murray goes elsewhere. The only remaining “star” with a question mark is Eli Manning, whose deal expires after 2015.
Here’s a look at the complete rankings for offense:
NFC EAST
OFFENSE
RANK
Team QB RB WR TE OL Avg
Dallas 1 2 2 1 1 1.4
Philadelphia 4 1 1 3 2 2.2
Washington 3 3 3 4 3 3.2
New York 2 4 4 2 4 3.2